Dow 10,500 is Support

by billb 2. October 2008 14:03
It's been another down market today so far, but I'm watching it bounce off of 10,500.  This is where the market gave way on Monday.  It's also where it closed above the following day.  There is a lot of interest around Dow 10.5K.  If we can hold underneath that for a few sessions, I think we have some more weak hands to shake out.  The VIX topping on Monday at this level may prove to be a signal.  If we break through 10.5K on a low VIX, we have another panic ahead of us, I would think.

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Unexpected Option Situation

by billb 2. October 2008 09:09

Two of my option plays have really surprised me.  First, the $22.50 short calls on C are now in the money.  If these are assigned, that's fine, I made money on premium.  It isn't exactly how I wanted it to play out, but it's not a bad situation at all given financials.  I may even be in the black on financials this year thanks to option income.  The second is my short $20 puts on GE.  I shorted these puts during the first big down turn a couple of weeks back.  Since then, GE went back up to over $26 making the juicy premium collected on GE seem like easy money.  Of course, nothing is easy or goes as expected as GE looks like it may be flirting with $20 per share if things keep going the way they are.  Admittedly, I'm scrambling for a plan.  I don't mind getting assigned at $20 because I think it's a wonderful price for a well diversified and massive company.  But the question becomes, do I want any more?  If GE dips below $20, is it a good time to sell some 17.50's or 15's?  Or do I just write calls like I did with C?

I normally already have my mind made up for these situations, but again, this seemed like easy pickings for premium just a couple of weeks ago.  It's probable that this will still turn out to my advantage (i.e. puts expire worthless), but it's always important to have a plan long before the unexpected happens.

Many of the option forums I frequent have many a topics of "I have position X and it's way in the red, how do I adjust?".  Shame on you.

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