This Just In, The Sky Has Fallen

by billb 9. October 2008 20:46

Tokyo down another 10% and in a free fall at this point.  Every news station (except for O'Reilly) had the market as the top story.  People I haven't heard from in years are popping out of the woodwork to ask me about 401Ks and the losses.  Comparisons to 1929 and 1987 are fast and furious.  The whole world is spooked.

This is NOW beginning to feel like the beginning of a bottom.  Sure, I think we can have more moves to the downside.  We may even have another dramatic move to the downside within the next couple of months.  I might change my mind should the Dow break below the lows in 2002 (which are around 7100 for those keeping score), but until then, I'm convinced that this is a bear market playing out as a normal bear.  2001-2003 was scary, this one is no different.

I've been buying aggressively and will buy some more if we make another dramatic move down.  Admittedly, the dry powder stash is running the lowest it's ever been, but there's still enough for another round of shopping.

Keep in mind, this isn't money for a mortgage payment or to put food on the table, this is money that would hurt a bit (mostly psychologically) to lose, but no one's betting the farm here.  I recommend the same for anyone else.  Money in the market should be money you can afford to lose or at least be without for awhile without incurring a lifestyle change. 

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Short Sellers Back In, Dow Goes to 0

by billb 9. October 2008 12:18

Silly title because hey, one silly thing deserves another.  Like I mentioned before, blaming shorts for a downward market is just plain ignorant.  Shorts are with us through an up market ... if they have so much power, why isn't the market 0?  If anything, we witnessed some of the most turbulent times in the market during the shorting ban.  It was almost a slow crash over this last week.  So now that the shorts are back, we're having one of the calmer periods we've had in some time.  So when I hear people like Dick Fuld blaming the LEH collapse on short sellers, I just have to laugh.  And to think this guy got paid millions per year to run a well established company into the ground.

I'm not a fan of short selling, but I do like the fact that it's allowed.  Next time you hear someone blame short sellers for market down turns, volatility or companies going under, please remember in 2008 when they banned it and the stock market plunged.

Oh ya, and CNBC, please stop asking your guests for stupid predictions, especially you Mark Haines and Larry Kudlow.  It's a disservice to your audience when people who come on as authorities or experts make predictions on things that they can't have any idea of.  Unfortunately, I hear people around the office taking these "predictions" and giving some worth when they clearly have none.

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