The Power of Option Volatility

by billb 13. October 2008 11:22

For those who ignore vega, and many do, here's a little glimpse of how this little variable can really have a dramatic effect on your position.

 

 
So as you can see, Citigroup is having a heck of a day.  Up 7.3%!  If you bought long calls on Friday, you sure should be happy, right?  Wrong.  On the move up volatility went down dramatically.  The vol is still extremely high, but way down since Friday.  So your smart move directionally owning some long calls was actually a horrible move in hindsight.
 
I'm not advocating selling options just because volatility is high, I'm saying be aware of the effect that big movements in volatility has on your position.  It's one thing to read about it, it's quite another to see it in real time. 

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Options

Sellers, When Do You Get Back In?

by billb 13. October 2008 07:29

I've posed this question before when it was merely theoretical, but now it's happening in real time.  Many people over the last few sessions have sold and sold big. Maybe some are gone for good, but I suspect most were selling out of panic that they might lose their nest egg.  Most likely this was done as a reaction and not in accordance with a plan.

I say regardless of the reason, I'd like to hear when you're getting back in.  If you sold at Dow 8500-9000 which was pretty darn close to the bottom, you have the real risk of the Dow gapping over your selling price as early as today!  And let's say it didn't do that, when do you get back in?  A bottom isn't known usually until well after the fact and things typically stabilize AFTER the big technical snap back ... so when do you get back in?

I always hear the big announcement from friends and on forums.  They sold and good luck to the rest of you turkeys.  But I never hear when they get back in.  I can only suspect that they realize after the fact that getting out was probably a bad idea and they lost even more than those that stayed in.  But I can only speculate.

So at the risk of sounding like a broken record, sellers, when you do get back in? 

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