There are a number of folks asking if the current market is a Black Swan event.  I think the fact that you have to ask immediately eliminates it as a black swan event.  If I've interpreted Taleb correctly it is something that catches you completely off guard.  The bear market we're in is still normal and happening so slowly that we can almost see everything unfolding in real time.  Everyone is anticipating something big.  This is like going hunting for the literal black swan.

I think black swans happen at a personal or group level frequently.  A good example of this is Joe the Plumber.  Do you think he expected to draw all of this attention from asking a simple question?  Now there are talks of him running for Congress.  All of this from a simple question.  This is highly improbable.