Dogs of the Dow - A Dog on Volume

by billb 30. November 2007 13:15

I'm a big fan of ETFs that track "conventional wisdom".  You know, always buy companies who are buying back their own shares (PKW, underperforming the market since inception, by the way), or the "wide moat" index recently introduced by Morningstar.  I wrote about both of them and their performance here.  Now there's a new one based on an old idea that seems to have some merit.  It's the Dogs of the Dow theory and if you're not familiar it goes like this.

The strategy is that blue chip companies do not alter their dividend to reflect trading conditions and, therefore, the dividend is a measure of the average worth of the company; the stock price, in contrast, fluctuates through the business cycle.  This should mean that companies with a high yield, with high dividend relative to price, are near the bottom of their business cycle and are likely to see their stock price increase faster than low yield companies. Under this model, an investor annually reinvesting in high-yield companies should out-perform the overall market.

Source - wikipedia
 
Simply put, at the beginning of each year, you hold the ten DJI stocks with the highest dividend yield.  And now there's an ETN out to do this for you.  This ETN began trading on November 8th.  It's not a dog because of performance, yet.  The doggy part is the pitiful volume.  I understand that many ETNs or ETFs need some time to gain popularity (or die trying), but this one may see death.  The highest daily volume so far has been 5400 shares and on Tuesday the 27th, it ratcheted a mind numbing 100 shares in total daily volume.
 
In all of the other conventional wisdom type ETFs/ETNs that I've reviewed, this one might have the most merit based on actual trading (not backtesting), but I'm afraid with volume figures like this, we may not see this one around long enough to find out.
I have my thoughts on the impending rate cut but it seems the details and rationale are still coming in fast and furious.  Things should settle over the weekend and I'll take it all in and give my thoughts on the matter.  Hint: they're not going to stray from my previous position on the issue.

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