Another Rate Cut, Bernanke Seemingly Panders to Market

by billb 4. December 2007 12:23

We're seemingly at the end of a cycle.  We have a stale bull market, slowing earnings, slowing economy (although the last GDP figures were quite strong).  This is not unusual.  The market had a correction and subsequent bounce.  It would not be unusual to see lower levels from here.  It would not be unusual to see a continued run up and watch the P/E ratios get severely out of whack.  Whatever the case may be, the panicked rate cuts being fired in rapid succession are not going to change this unavoidable course much.

The point of the cuts are to ease the landing, however, it is killing our currency.  The U.S. has never really had to worry about the impact of rate cuts on our currency.  Now this is a serious concern.  The dollar has been diving and this should be the priority of the fed.  For easy proof that this is serious, have a look at Japan.  The Bank of Japan has had a weak yen policy since the 80's.  Probably most of us remember the fear in this country about the Japanese taking over the world.  Looking back, the enormous growth experienced during that time was the demand for Japanese goods due to their plummetting currency value.  This was great for awhile, but has had a devastating impact on the economy through the 90's and into the present day.  The Nikkei 225 was close to 40,000 at its peak and trades around 15,000 today.  Japan has been in a deflationary environment up until very recently (currently at a 0.3% inflation rate).  Inflation greases the wheels, deflation locks them up.

I'm not saying that we're doomed to repeat the Japanese mistake, but given the current choice, I'd rather see us pay a little now than a lot more later.  Having a 10-20% ding in the portfolio for a year is quite recoverable and may expose some very nice opportunities for longer term holdings.

A good analogy is the screaming child.  We can give the child some candy and he'll shut up now, but if we keep addressing the problem with candy, further screams will be louder and more persistent.  If we ignore or deal with the scream and do not give in to the quick fix, we set ourselves up for stability (and sanity) in the future.  I'd rather not reward negative behavior which is precisely what we're doing here.  Tough love is what I'm getting at.

Wasn't it easy money that got us into this mess in the first place?

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