Profits Jump, Shares Plunge

by billb 17. January 2008 12:14
Sound familiar?  If not, you didn't delve into the details during the heart of the last bear market.  I'm starting to see some similar headlines from the past that are slowly swinging me from mildly bullish to mildly bearish.  Large writedowns, several companies announcing layoffs and even good news being bad news.  It's all relative, don't ya know?  Our big unknown during the last bear was the corporate scandals.  Apparently every company was guilty at some level and we would never know the real depth.  Apply those same superlatives to subprime and you get the same news, different details.
 
So what's the best strategy at this point?  Short?  Cash?  Bottom fish?  Answer:  All of the above.  At this point, I'll be looking for low volatility, quality stocks that have taken a beating for my longer term holdings.  For the short term, I'll be playing some speculative bearish spreads mixed in with some speculative long spreads.  The bottom line, I'll be fully hedged and know my maximum loss long before the trade is ever executed.  If you're an options guy, big down days usually result in inflated premiums.  If I'm looking at a speculative play to the upside in a high vol environment, a butterfly may be in order.  Butterflies can be directional plays and also benefit when volatility drops.  If you're not familiar with mechanics of a butterfly, I pick it apart real good in "A Live Butterfly".  If you're looking to catch a bounce after a big down day, a butterfly may be the answer, but you've got to be right in two out of three to make it a good trade.  But you can almost count on volatility going down when the market goes up.  So I typically lean bullish with my butterflies.  On the short side, you can consider a bearish calendar or a bear call spread.  Bearish calendars might be good to capture a spike in volatility.  Bear call spreads will leave you somewhat vol neutral.  It all depends on where the strikes are.
 
Oh, and I never short stocks.  Unlimited risk = bad.  You can pretty much accomplish it all with options and keep your risk defined.  That's really the name of the game in staying alive for the long term.

Tags:

Markets | Options

Comments

1/18/2008 12:27:39 AM #

phg

Why bet against the trend? It's a bear market. Moving up will be arduous. There ia money to be made in bear positions that rely on no big moves up. Of the universe of stocks, at least 2/3rds will exhibit that behavior for the next several months; that's good odds.

However one is optimistic, there should always be at least one position going with the trend, don't you think?

phg

1/18/2008 6:08:43 AM #

Bill

Absolutely agree.  I didn't mean to imply that all of my short term bets are against the currently bearish trend.  I'll be doing all of the above.  Bearish, neutral and bullish.

Bill

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