Fear?

by billb 21. January 2008 19:13

Like I mentioned before, the VIX is very telling when we've reached a turning point.  When it reaches historical extremes, there's a good chance that there will be either a good snap in the other direction or even as much as a long term trend change.  I purported that even though that all of the major averages are down big, we're likely not done yet since the sell off has been orderly and without panic.

The big word in 2002 was "capitulation".  While the indexes were selling off and no one knew were the bottom was, the talking heads kept talking of capitulation.  This is a big word and basically means when the VIX spikes.  The experts were saying that the bottom is in when all of the holders have thrown up their hands and begin selling.  This leads into a massive sell off that is panic driven.  Capitulation.

Now today is a holiday, and I don't have a VIX reading, but I'm seeing some real fear without the VIX and I'll share.

(sorry about the scroll)

I don't know what this will translate into tomorrow.  The overseas market were punished overnight, and this may be just reaction to the selling mood.  What I'm hoping for is that this will finally shake out some more of the weak sellers.  Buying after a crash has yielded some nice short term returns for those that can stomach it.

Be the first to rate this post

  • Currently 0/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

Markets

Add comment


(Will show your Gravatar icon)  

  Country flag

biuquote
  • Comment
  • Preview
Loading



Powered by BlogEngine.NET 1.4.0.0
Theme by Mads Kristensen

RecentComments

Comment RSS

Calendar

<<  January 2009  >>
MoTuWeThFrSaSu
2930311234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930311
2345678

View posts in large calendar