Bears in Control this Morning

by billb 15. July 2008 12:14

 Yesterday's action was very typical of a bear market.  You had plenty of panic where well known names were down double digits.  You had a futures market that was up sharply only to close down.  Two more interesting things have happened.  One, the VIX has spiked to a 3 month high and two, the futures are down sharply again this morning.

I go back to the last bear market as my guide.  What's up was down and what's down was up for the longest time while we wrestled the bear of 01-03.  It wouldn't surprise me to see us either close down very sharply (read, 300-400 points down) or to close up.  To say it simply, I expect a lot of volatility today.

With the blood in the streets, I'm going to be looking to add to long term ETF holdings (again).  I have enough financial exposure, so I'll be eyeing some beaten up broad based indexes.  Also, if the covered call S&P 500 ETF looks good from a bid/ask spread standpoint (I watch the PBP), I'll pick up some of that.  No guarantees that I'm getting into anything today though.  What I have done though is come up with a plan well in advance of this day.  I have a spreadsheet I bring up show my current and desired allocations and what stocks or ETFs I want to comprise a particular allocation.  Now it's just a matter of pulling the trigger.  Which on days like today is a task in and of itself.  Gotta stick to the plan though.

Good luck out there today.

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