Sucker for Momentum

by billb 21. July 2008 12:10

I have a pretty good grasp on mean reversion type trading.  It's the cornerstone of most of my trading systems and typically what I use real money to trade with.  One thing I've never gotten the handle of is momentum trading.  My take is that mean reversion is great for vascillating markets.  Momentum trading is great in trending markets, particularly those trending up.  I've come up with some ideas over the last several weeks that I'd like to try.  I'd tell you more about them, but this is really throwing stuff on the wall to see what sticks.  I'll be refining this technique over the next several months, or I'll be throwing it away and going back to the drawing board.

To me, the key to momentum investing is trying not to get slaughtered during down trends.  I'm purposely starting right now (even though it's a little premature in my studies) because of the wild market conditions.  You'll be able to monitor my progress at Marketocracy and right now this is only paper money.  The MMF fund will start today with a NAV of $10.00 per share or $1,000,000 in cash.  No pretty pictures or graphs yet, however, the first buys will start today.  The two I'm starting the fund with are ZEUS and AXYS.

What's going to make this fund different for me is that there is going to be some discretion regarding which items I buy and sell and when I buy and sell them.  Typically in the past, I would generate a culled list from a series of fundamental and technical criteria and blindly buy and sell at periods defined in my plan.  This time, I'll rely on the noodle just a little bit to try and keep the fund out of danger.  Hopefully most of the screening and analysis will keep me out of serious danger.

Depending on the level of interest, I may keep the trade log public and rationale behind each buy and sell.

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

Trading Systems

Comments

7/21/2008 2:49:29 PM

phg

StockScouter (MSN) gives both of those a 9. Basically you are talking about screening, so what your criteria are is going to be interesting.

BTW, talking about an interesting well described set of screens, are you aware of AAII (American Association of Individual Investors)? Best source of well maintained screens I am aware of. (Disclosure: I have a membership to AAII.)

phg

7/21/2008 8:39:36 PM

Bill B

It's actually a number of screens, with a mix of fundamental and technical. It's based on mrmarket's (mrmarketishuge.com) criteria, but it's been adapted to fit my tastes a bit more and of course, there is some discretionary. I also haven't exactly worked out my exit rules yet. This is very much a work in progress.

I stumbled across AAII recently. Obviously you like it since you're a member, but can you share a little more about what it's all about?

Bill B

7/22/2008 1:41:58 AM

Bill B

Oh ya, and I might also mention that it does utilize MSN Moneycentral's ratings (both their rating and fundamental grade) and also is crossed with the IBD rankings. Although IBD is not the final authority on whether or not I buy.

Again, it's a bit of a mish-mash of things that hopefully I'll get nailed down. I want to see what sticks at this point.

Bill B

7/22/2008 9:26:30 AM

phg

http://www.aaii.com/
A fair way to characterize AAII is that it is for conservative buy-and hold investors. Its publications offer good fundamental investment insight and information. For my purposes the most useful feature is the array of different stock screens, all carefully and regularly updated and documented. There is no touting of individual stocks or strategies. It is very good at giving even-handed treatment of a range of matters an investor might consider.

phg

Add comment


(Will show your Gravatar icon)  

  Country flag

biuquote
  • Comment
  • Preview
Loading



Powered by BlogEngine.NET 1.4.0.0
Theme by Mads Kristensen

RecentComments

Comment RSS

Calendar

<<  January 2009  >>
MoTuWeThFrSaSu
2930311234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930311
2345678

View posts in large calendar