Playing with Fire on Commodities

by billb 5. August 2008 07:22
 

CF and HP both took massive hits yesterday on the "mo" portfolio.  While both of these are indeed good companies, they're both tied to the commodities market in some shape or form.  Much to the world's delight, the commodities, particularly oil have been taking a beating over the last couple of weeks.  As goes oil, so goes the rest of the commodities it appears.  My DBC holding peeked at $45.95 on July 14th.  It has gone nearly straight down since then to close yesterday at 38.68.  

A decline of 16%.  This is a somewhat broad based commodities holding.  If the stock market were to decline 16% in two weeks, there would be a little panic, I would think. 

But anyway, I suspect a rotation out of commodities, but even with my suspicion, I rolled with what my models told me.  It's not a timing model, so I anticipate that there will be some drawdown during rotations as sector go out of favor.  It's important to see how badly this impacts performance. 

In other news, an interesting article about active ETF performance now that they're 3 months old. They've been overweight in tech and energy and underweight financials and surprise, they've lost less than the broad based indices. Not a shocker. I suspect that the actively managed funds will suffer from the same underperformance during sector favor change. I hope they can survive it as well. You can read the full article here.

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ETFs | Markets

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