Capturing the Moment

by billb 10. October 2008 20:00

We all try to imagine what it was like in 1929 or 1930 but we at best, we may get stories that may be half truths from those that are still around to tell them.  I'm not saying 1929 was easy and the Great Depression was nothing, for crying out loud, it gets capital letters when referenced so it must be serious.  But my point this evening is to use the power of technology to capture the moment.  The Dow was swinging around hundreds of points in a matter of minutes.  People that are casual observers of the market are extremely scared and those who are more than that are getting a nervous twitch.  The market is acting strangely and the world is on edge.  To me, this is not really different than the last bear market that I've personally experienced, although some may beg to differ.  Bear markets are hard. During a bull market you may read a book or two about how capitalizing on a crash is the way to outperform the market.  When the crash hits, buy until you can buy no more and you'll surely outdo the market.  Afterall, the old adage is buy low, sell high and the first part of that equation is buying low.  So if the market crashes, what a great way to buy low, right?  Well, what they fail to mention in these books is that buying low is hard.  This is why the low buyers are rewarded.

As the market plummets hundreds of points, you start to doubt yourself.  I mean if it can fall a few hundred points an hour, surely it can fall a few hundred more, I'll just wait, right?  Well, I did that in the last bear market and lost.  Face it, you're not going to pick a bottom, so if the market it off 20%, 30%, 50%, keep buying your indexes and whatever else according to your plan.  If you don't have a plan, stay the hell out

When is it considered a crash?  It always seems obvious after the fact.  While this one wasn't a big and spectacular presentation like 1929 or 1987, we've lost almost 20% on the Dow in just a week.  This is certainly low.  What happens if we go lower?  Buy some more.  Just because you want to buy that doesn't mean to go all in.  And if you're going to buy, diversify ... grab indexes, not individual companies.  Like my hero Roger says, "how many companies go to 0? ... how many indexes go to 0?"

Of course, my standard disclaimer applies.  This is not a recommendation.  Do not put money in the market that is money you'll need in the next 10 years.  It's one of those things that if the market goes down 1000 points tomorrow, you'll say "ah well, let me put in some more and average out".  If you can't say that, then put that money in the bank.  Period.  As most are realizing (too late), this is not for the weak or faint of heart.  You're being introduced to risk first hand, which has been awfully quiet for the last few years.  If this is your first bear market, get used to it.

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Comments

10/10/2008 9:04:10 PM

Anon

Bill,
I am looking at using Roger as my family's investment advisor and would truly appreciate your third party perspective on both his approach, strategy and style?
Thanks

Anon

10/11/2008 12:30:52 PM

billb

I don't use Roger as an investment advisor and I don't know anyone that does. So I can't comment directly to that. However, I can say that he makes a lot of sense. He's obviously been in the markets a long time and has learned to separate emotion from getting the desired effect.

If I were looking for an advisor, I would look for someone who talks to me about my goals and then lays out a plan on how to get there. Again, I don't know Roger other than his blog, but if I were looking for a financial advisor he'd be one of the first on my list to call.

I think where a lot of people fail is that they look for someone else to manage their money and the market chugs along and they show reasonable returns. They don't care to know what they're invested in or about understanding their risk. Then the market falls out and all of a sudden everyone is interested in knowing what their planner is up to every second. They also want to know what to do now. To me, a good planner would've already had this in place. As Roger has demonstrated, he had a double short ETF in place when market demand was low (price was below the 200 day moving average) and has recently eased out of that holding in anticipation of a bounce back or at least not much more bleeding. This is a plan that he had in place and executed it. Is this the best plan? Who knows. The point here is that you understand the risk and the possible outcomes. This is where someone like Roger comes in.

I hope this helps, but your best bet is to get several consultations and see which advisor makes the most sense to you.

billb us

10/11/2008 4:28:41 PM

Anon

Thanks for your kind reply Bill. What is your opinion of the whole passive buy hold index approach to investing?

Anon

10/11/2008 5:59:39 PM

billb

Well, it has a track record. The vast majority of those who attempt to time the market fail. Most fund managers do not beat the market. A diversified portfolio of various assets (equities, bonds, real estate, commodities, etc) has merit.

I invest long term and I trade short term.

billb us

10/11/2008 9:35:56 PM

Anon

Bill,
Thanks again. I have been a passive buy hold index investor since 2004 and this recent bear has me questioning the strategy and thus my interest in Roger. Do you have any words of wisdom at this point for someone that has been 100% long equities? Would only a fool sell now? Thanks

Anon

10/12/2008 10:52:46 AM

billb

Well no one knows what the future holds, but like I said, having a plan and being diversified is the only strategy that seems to have stood the test of time. I can only tell you that this is how my long term holdings are structured. I do usually wait for big dip days to load up instead of buying blindly. I don't really recommend this because a lot of times you'll miss the bigger moves. As for what I'm doing, I've got more cash coming in this week to buy more of my long term diversified holdings. Hopefully this action gives you a good idea of where I'm at in all of this.

billb us

10/12/2008 5:30:05 PM

Anon

Thanks Bill. Best of luck to you and keep up the blog

Anon

10/12/2008 5:54:09 PM

billb

Thank you and don't be a stranger.

billb us

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