by billb
5. June 2009 19:21
Things are very interesting for my bearish position. As I mentioned, my new profit target is around 875 for the SPX, which seems like light years away. After the employment numbers and the futures way up on the news, I was ready to close my bearish calendar at a loss, but before I could do so, the market ran right back down to breakeven on the day. This feels very weak to me because on 'surprisingly' good numbers, the market could not muster a big rally day. This feels weak on the short term and made me keep my position opened. At this point, it is still open but the time is fading. There is two weeks until expiration and I'm about 65 points away from my profit target. I'll be looking for an exit in the next couple of weeks, naturally, but I'm highly skeptical that my profit target will be met.
This is one of the drawbacks of a calendar spread. Sure, you get a low barrier to entry, but in exchange for that, timing is of the essence. You get to sweat around expiration and what's more, your short option could be assigned.
My point here is to let anyone who is trading short term to understand the psychology. It's easy to look at a chart or a position after the fact and justify the response, but if you're a bearish / overbought person, what do you do now? It's not easy on the bull or bear side. Hopefully I'll alleviate some the pain by telling you that I'm both long and short. At least this helps me cope with a strange market. The bearish position was put in place to hedge some of the gains I received on the long side. I'm happy to see the market move up, but not as sad as most to see the market move down. This is probably the psychology that should be when in a bull situation with a small bearish hedge.