by billb
2. October 2009 07:44
Newest trading system flagged a buy on most of the indexes since it was a reasonably big down day. It isn't uncommon when all of the indexes to flag a buy for there to be another down day, although usually not as dramatic as the one before. This sort of behavior gives one the idea to "outsmart" their trading system. I've learned better over the year. However, logistically, I really can't add positions for all indexes, so I'm going to increase my exposure on what I feel the best spread is from an risk/reward perspective. The best of the bunch was a SPY vertical with the short strike at 94.00. To increase my exposure and to further test my trading system, I'm going to open up my strike distances by one strike. So instead of a 93/94 put credit spread, I'm going to do a 92/94 put credit spread. See the risk graph below and as usual, click to enlarge the picture.

spy-vertical-spread-november-2009.png (48.37 kb)
This graph is an approximate credit amount, if we gap up this morning (which doesn't seem likely thanks to continued weak payroll numbers), I might hold off. If we gap lower, I'll probably take the increased credit as opposed to lowering my strikes. Will update with fill information.
Usual disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to anyone to buy or sell. I'm not a professional and I don't have much sense, so following me is hazardous to your finanical health. The point of the post is to share ideas and hopefully get some feedback so that we can all improve our understanding of the subject.
UPDATE: Filled @ 0.31 per spread.